Rep. Jake Auchincloss holds a 47-point lead over progressive challenger Jason Poulos in the only public poll of the Massachusetts 4th Congressional District Democratic primary, according to a survey released Wednesday, July 16.

The survey of 400 district primary voters, commissioned by the Auchincloss campaign and conducted by Global Strategy Group, found 64 percent of respondents back the three-term incumbent. Seventeen percent support Poulos, and 19 percent remain uncommitted. Fifty-six percent said they "definitely" plan to vote for Auchincloss.

The poll also showed Auchincloss with a 75 percent approval rating and 67 percent favorability rating among likely Democratic primary voters.

One major caveat: the Auchincloss campaign paid for the survey. No independent polling of the race exists.

Newton's stake

Newton's roughly 90,000 residents make it one of the most populous communities in the sprawling MA-4 district, which stretches from Brookline to Fall River, Taunton, and Attleboro. The poll memo does not break results down by geography, so it's unclear how Newton voters specifically feel about the race.

Auchincloss, 38, is a Newton native who attended Newton North High School and served on the Newton City Council from 2015 to 2021 before winning his congressional seat. He first won the 2020 Democratic primary with just 22.4 percent of the vote in a nine-candidate field.

The challenger

Poulos, 40, is an AI researcher from Sherborn who holds a doctorate in political science and computational science from UC Berkeley and completed postdoctoral work at Harvard Medical School. He has framed his campaign around Medicare for All, Universal Basic Income, an automation tax on corporations, and ending U.S. military aid to Israel.

"This campaign is very much a youth revolt," Poulos told the Newton Beacon in March, describing his appeal to younger voters in the district.

His fundraising reflects the uphill climb. Federal Election Commission filings through March 2026 showed Poulos had raised $9,139 in total receipts, more than half from the candidate himself. Auchincloss had nearly $7 million on hand as of the same filing period, according to Fig City News.

Poulos has refused corporate PAC money and AIPAC contributions. He has criticized Auchincloss for accepting more than $933,000 from pro-Israel lobbying groups since 2020, according to Track AIPAC, and for voting in January 2026 in favor of legislation providing $3.3 billion annually in funding for Israel.

What's ahead

Two other Democratic primary challengers, Ihssane Leckey and Christopher Boyd, have suspended their campaigns, leaving Auchincloss and Poulos as the only active candidates.

"Poulos for Congress" yard signs have appeared in Newton neighborhoods this summer, but the campaign-commissioned poll suggests that visible grassroots energy has not translated into broad district-wide support.

The Democratic primary is Tuesday, September 1. Newton voters can check their registration or update their address through the Massachusetts Secretary of State's office at sec.state.ma.us.